Ashland 4th of July

Ashland is great for celebrating holidays. And one of the best holidays of the year for Ashland residents is this weekend.

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If you have been in Ashland for the 4th, you know what I am talking about. It is a great time to socialize with you fellow residents…and all of the people who have left town and return for this holiday.

My day usually starts with Breakfast at the Elks lodge, followed by watching the parade.

The parade is always entertaining, frequently controversial, and shows the best of a small town charm. The El Tapatio horses are always good. Plenty of people making political statements. And the question of how many naked people you may see.

Following the parade, a trip through Lithia park and the craft and food booths, and more finding and visiting with friends.

After that, I usually have hooked up with someone I know and go to Alex’s or the Siskiyou Pub for some music, beer, and more food.

 

During the course of the day, and years hanging around, a couple of BBQ’s usually require some attendance at. Preferably where a swimming pool is in operation.

 

Then to round off the night…dinner or drinks with friends. My house has great views of the fireworks, as do some good friends and neighbors. So a spot is staked out, and the fireworks are watched…

 

When that is all done, you are generally pretty exhausted and make your way to a good nights sleep.

 

Green Designations for Realtors

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

There are currently two competing designations for Realtors to indicate that they are “green”.

I have been on the fence for quite some time whether it is practical to have the designation, or just having the knowledge of what is taught.

My basic issue with official designations is there is an annual cost just to have them….and does not include any additional education. I am happy to pay to take the initial education, but the annual fees add up for professional Realtors, and a savy business person needs to figure out which ones are worth the cost.

Eco-broker costs $179 a year and the new Green designation is $99 a year.

But in Ashland Real Estate, there are people who care….and don’t understand that one agent could have more knowledge about “green” practices, but may not find that the annual cost is a good return on the investment…and therefore not advertise it.

Look for more in the near future.

By the way…there is a free solar class being offered in Medford tomorrow. You can register for it at the Solar Oregon website.

 

 

Seller’s Market under $200k—but not over

I’ve been looking at the added sales volume we have had in the Rogue Valley lately, and hearing stories (and experiencing) multiple offer situations. It has been feeling like a seller’s market in many ways. However, it all seems to be in the lower price range. So I just ran a few numbers.

For the record…the numbers are generate from sales reported to Southern Oregon MLS, and are in town properties for sale in Medford, Talent, Phoenix, Ashland and Jacksonville, with reported sales in the last 3 months.

A quick refresher…I am going to be talking about absorbsion rate. That is the rate of current sales divided into current inventory…or how many months it would take to sell all of the available homes if no other homes were listed.

So the numbers go something like this:

• Under $200k, there are currently 332 properties available, and an average of 59 sales a month. So there are 5.5 months of supply.
• Between $200k and $300k there are currently 326 properties available and an average of 32 sales a month. So there are 10 months of supply.
• Between $300k and $500k there are currently 294 properties available and an average of 20 sales a month. So there are 15 months of supply.
• Between $500k and $800k there are currently 124 properties available and an average of 3 sales a month. So there are 41 months of supply.
• Over $800k there are currently 52 properties available and an average of 1 sale a month. So there are 52 months of supply.

A six month supply is considered a balance market….so there is a balanced market at under $200k….but in all other price ranges, it is still a buyer’s market.

How does one account for this? I think the first time home buyers and investors are thinking now is the time to buy. The $8000 tax credit appears to be working. What we are missing is the buyers that are moving up…or the buyers that are moving in from other locations.

May Stats Are Here

With every set of statisics I run or receive there is always good news….and there is always some bad news. That is the nature of real estate. What is good for sellers, is not necessarily good for buyers…and vice versa.

That being said…it appears that we are approaching a point in the market where the two may be getting close to meeting…where there is a balance in the market, and neither the seller, nor the buyer has the convincing upper hand. That point is if we hit a point where there is about 6 months of housing supply at the current rate of sales and listings.

We are getting there. It looks right now like there may be about a 8 month supply (down from 14).

• Sales by volume are up by 30% over this time last year (county wide)
• Sales by volume in Ashland are up 35%
• Median prices are down across the region to appoximately 2004 prices
• Listing volume is down 27% from this time last year
• Listing volume in Ashland is down 35%
• REO/Short sales account for 17% of all listings
• REO/Short sales account for 47.5% of all sales
• Last month REO/Short sales accounted for 18% of all listings

The whole chart with all areas should be published tomorrow in the Mail Tribune.

Sales Definitely Up In Ashland

The number of homes that sold in Ashland is up considerably this year from the same time last year.

Through the first part of May, there have been 75 homes sold in Ashland. That is up from 56 during the same period last year.

Interestingly there were no sales in the beginning of 2008 for less than $200,000. There have been 6 under $200,000 sales so far this year.

The Breakdown goes like this:

2009

• Under $200k —-6 sales
• $200k-300k—-18 sales
• $300k-400k—–28 sales
• $400k-500k—-12 sales
• $500k-600k—-5 sales
• $600k-$999k—4 sales
• Over $1 mill.—-2 sales

2008

• Under $200k —-0 sales
• $200k-300k—-11 sales
• $300k-400k—–21 sales
• $400k-500k—-13 sales
• $500k-600k—-5 sales
• $600k-$999k—5 sales
• Over $1 mill.—-1 sale

While the volume of sales is up 35%, the median price is down 13% from $380,000 to $330,000

Washington DC (views from a Hotel room)

After my mid-day nap yesterday….going to sleep with the crud was close to impossible….Add to that the fact I’m in a hotel room and the bed is a foot too short….it made for a long night…but enough whining.

What I do like about the Mayflower hotel.

• Room is large and nice
• Less than a block to the Metro
• Shower head is above my head
• Phone next to toilet in case the wake-up call comes after you are already awake.
• Lots of drawers to unpack into
• Nice hangers for clothes in large closet.
• In room coffee is decent

Room for Improvement

• No wireless internet…have to be connected via cable in the darkest corner of the room
• People in DC honk too much
• Leaving the NY times is more classy than leaving a USA Today

So now I am resting up for meeting with Greg Walden and Peter DeFazio…

And if there is enough energy left in my body, a tour of the Realtor building in DC, and back to the conference center to try to catch some forum discussions. Followed by Oregon Night Out and dinner.

Wish I were staying longer…or had gone home yesterday.

Washington DC travel (b)log part deux

The reason Twitter is so cool is that you can post your thoughts real time, and not try to remember them for the rest of the day (or two). There have been many interesting things since I made it to DC.

First..I have ridden a taxi, subway, bus, shuttle…and walked many miles. I for some reason love public transportation when I am away from home.  I suppose if we had better public transportation at home, I might use it…but doubt it. I love to drive.

Yesterday was spent being a tourist. After listening to the speakers in the morning, I look a walk down past the White House, through a Greene and Greene exhibit in a museum, down to the Lincoln Memorial, and all of the way back to the Library of Congress.  Some of the things I noticed were.

• The National Mall is huge…when you see the pictures of the Obama inag. or MLK’s speech…you can’t fathom how many people are there.
• I stood in the spot MLK gave his “I have a dream” speech.
• There was a crazy lady yelling at everyone in the Lincoln Memorial
• I was surprised at how emotional the Vietnam Memorial made me. The design is pretty powerful.
• The WWII and Korean War Memorials were both very cool…but not nearly as heartbreaking
• I never knew that you could ride up an elevator in the Washington Monument (I didn’t)
• The space capsules that first took men into space are tiny. I thought the airplane was crowded for the 4 hour flight. Those astronauts must have really liked each other
• The Smithsoneon Space Museum restaurant is run by McDonalds..how pathetic
• One could spend days going through the museums…Hope I have more time later to explore
• The Library of Congress is super cool

Those were a few of the notes from my tourism travels.

Today I met with a group of Realtors with both of our Senators. I think Oregon is very lucky to have Senators that will spend that time listening to the concerns of their constituents. Wyden was late (Obama called a special Health Care meeting….yadda yadda….I’ve heard that excuse before), but made up for it by offering to meet with our group whenever he is back in Oregon.

My big super secret Realtor business meetings today were not quite what I hoped for…but I see direction in the process.

Trade show participants can be very annoying…

Unfortunately I woke this morning not in the greatest of health….I told my daughter if she gave me her cold before I went to DC I was going to be quite upset…. I took a nap this afternoon, then went and found a restaurant that would serve me large quantities of garlic….hope I feel better tomorrow.

Til then….

Washington dc travel (b)log

In the effort to not over Twitter, I believe a running blog of Washington DC via blog from my iPhone will save my facebook friends. So I advance I will apologize for typos, mis-spellings, and bad grammar. There is no good editing available yet on the iPhone. The flight was perfect except for being a little too crowded for me. Bags arrived timely, shuttle was waiting, hotel is very nice with friendly staff. Met up with Krista. Stacey and Darrel for dinner and spent too much money.

So far I have not seen much. The Washington monument was visible on the ride in

DC reminds me of LA in many ways. I get that feeling that people are looking at everyone wondering if they are famous, except instead of movie stars, its tv personalities and politicians.

Speaking of which, I saw Harold ford jr. And Pat Buchanen argue in person this morning. Harold spilled his coffee on himself. He was very personable and Pat was quite funny.
Also saw Robert Reich who I see on The Rachel Maddow show all of the time. People are much taller on tv, especially Reich who would look me straight in the bellybutton.
Reich believes that the turn around for the recession will be next year, but will take 4-5 years to really end.

Just finshed a good breakfast in Woodley Park.

More later…..

Pending Sales Up, Inventory Down

I just received some graphs showing the trends in pending sales and market absorption.  They are very encouraging. Pending sales are currently at their highest point in more than the last year. These statistics are for Jackson County, and were provided by the Southern Oregon MLS.

The previous high of pending sales for the last year was June of 2008…where pending sales were about 168. At the reporting in March of 2009 the pending sales are at 171. Last March, pending sales were under 110. And the low point of the last year was in December of 2008 where they dipped to 100.

Other great stats:

• New listings are down 22%
• Absorption rate is down to 9 months a high of 18 months last April (6 month absorption is considered a balanced market)
• Housing affordablity index is up from 90 to 130 (the higher above 100, the more affordable)
• Then number of available homes per buyer is down from 20 to 11

So all said…it looks like positive signs for both buyers and sellers. How I would love to be able to say at some point in the near future that it is a balanced market (not a seller’s market or a buyer’s market)

I’ll try to get to more stats later.

Original Listing Price to Selling Price

I admit it has been a long time since I have posted on my blog.  Blame in on the weather, the slightly more active real estate market…or probably the real cause. I have been out of town for something or other almost every week for a day or two.

Or perhaps I just couldn’t think of anything interesting to say…although that has not stopped me before.

I just received some interesting statistics from the local MLS. I have been asking for this graph for quite a while, and finally we have it.

The average list to sales price in Ashland is now, and has been for ages 95-97% of the asking price. I have talked about this before. What that means is that buyers won’t make offers, and/or sellers will not except offers that are not listed close to the market value. The idea of low-balling sellers is not something that works very often in our area. So buyers won’t make acceptable offers on properties until there have been price reductions that put the house in the proper range.

So what I really wanted to know was what was the average selling price in comparison the the “Original” listing price.  Below is the graph for Jackson County Oregon Real estate.

Ashland shows that at this time, the houses that are selling are selling at 85.5% of their original asking price. This is down about 4% from a year ago. That to me is an accurate representation of what I have noticed. Houses that are listed optimistically in the first place do sell when they reach the level. And apparently that level is about 10% less than the original asking price.